199 Laps (pt3)

Having failed miserably in my Hour Record predictions in my previous blogs, I’m obviously going to continue & make some more ‘informed’ & potentially inaccurate predictions as to Wiggins behaviour.

Fabs

Fabian Cancellara has been reported today in the Italian press to be aiming for an Hour Record attempt after the Tour this year. We knew last year an attempt would be made by ‘Spartacus’ at some point in 2014, but this is the closest we’ve got to anything definitive. We also have no confirmed venue, hopefully he’ll not go for the Aguascalientes track in Mexico, which was used for a UCI Track World Cup in December 2013, placing the record out of reach of any attempts at sea level. The UCI don’t differentiate anymore between altitude records & sea level records, most of the competition records are now at altitude, which isn’t important for direct competition & medals, but is very important for world record attempts.

Positions & Bikes

The UCI has been reported to have been looking at changing the rules on the Hour record, currently you have to adopt an Eddy Merckx style velocipede & modern developments like aero rims, triathlon handlebars, profiled tubes & power meters are banned. Which makes putting together a competitive Hour record bike actually quite difficult to get the best aero advantage. An off-the-peg frame probably isn’t going to give the best extreme position for an hour locked in a drop bar position as they’re set up for bunch racing, while pursuit bikes are set up for riding with tri-bars. We saw Chris Boardman have one specially built & Graeme Obree’s planned attempt had a bike with a very long top tube. The UCI’s ‘progressive’ idea was to stop technology playing such a big part in the record, but ended in destroying any interest in the former ‘blue riband’ event in cycling records. Former Tour winners & cycling champions would often attempt it at the end of their careers, this tradition has now ended, but there is a resurgence in interest now with time trial specialists like Cancellara, Tony Martin & Bradley Wiggins all interested.

Hopefully we’ll have a relaxation in the rules before Cancellara’s attempt, so a current UCI legal pursuit bike can be used. The record has always progressed aerodynamically, with riders from different era’s not being compared directly by the fans, it was a mistake of the UCI to attempt to lock the medal at the technology of 1972, that was never really going to work. You can see the iconic names on the all time list of Hour Record holders in THIS link.

My Latest Wiggins Prediction

I’ve been reading a lot of interviews with Brad recently, he seems to have his head re-attached after a lacklustre 2013 (for him). Looking at his goals for 2014, an Hour Record will fit in nicely, but I’m going for a much later date now that my previous prediction of a late 2013 or early 2014 attack on the record, which has been well & truly discredited.

I’m looking at his build up to the 2014 World Time Trial Championships, which will be held in spain on the 24th September. The Worlds preparation includes the Vuelta, where he can do plenty of Hour Record specific muscular adaptation work on the drops, possibly without anybody noticing.

The UCI have a Track World Cup scheduled the 7th to 9th November. Would it be too much for Brad to ask if British Cycling would like to include a sneaky wee Hour Record attempt in there. With the Commissaire’s & officials all present, plus a partisan crowd, wouldn’t it be even more exciting for him if that World Cup was held at the London Velodrome? So there’s my latest prediction, 8th November, London, Bradley Wiggins Hour Record attempt. (Disclaimer. I don’t even know if that World Cup is being held in the UK, but let’s get some interest going in the Hour Record again, prove me wrong, but we’re all missing out by not having our top time trialists attempting it)

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